Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 12.042329 13.784949 15.656354 17.811349 20.220088 22.825142 25.851217
2025-10-05 9.711296 12.133785 14.931850 18.385227 22.514052 27.272413 33.150367
2025-10-12 8.465918 11.191842 14.490165 18.741976 24.041076 30.388551 38.523611
2025-10-19 7.287583 10.150987 13.766840 18.615736 24.888421 32.663749 42.956050
2025-10-26 6.360994 9.281117 13.110070 18.424613 25.524218 34.585604 46.912898
2025-11-02 5.680348 8.648780 12.677110 18.445063 26.375216 36.762583 51.238232
2025-11-09 5.158234 8.169212 12.386260 18.597878 27.362624 39.112969 55.842641
2025-11-16 4.647391 7.646437 11.976437 18.529392 28.006157 40.991879 59.854693
2025-11-23 4.180081 7.136842 11.532820 18.360133 28.467126 42.604967 63.530904
2025-11-30 3.848928 6.801246 11.311149 18.483677 29.330064 44.787905 68.057872
2025-12-07 3.646556 6.648593 11.348446 18.984551 30.753856 47.807687 73.867500
2025-12-14 3.303102 6.229935 10.934819 18.755859 31.056547 49.195800 77.354377
2025-12-21 2.864425 5.613294 10.165295 17.927535 30.412335 49.182108 78.826681
2025-12-28 2.734223 5.521977 10.246961 18.465447 31.914870 52.437168 85.280321
2026-01-04 2.586528 5.383104 10.233800 18.837679 33.159182 55.331464 91.274152
2026-01-11 2.367755 5.091053 9.933856 18.705896 33.574386 56.950569 95.363102
2026-01-18 2.161920 4.802256 9.615233 18.515718 33.872698 58.382583 99.193712
2026-01-25 2.006608 4.596104 9.427297 18.535635 34.512539 60.367956 103.945479
2026-02-01 1.883374 4.441756 9.321151 18.689324 35.378108 62.737608 109.374123
2026-02-08 1.741904 4.235410 9.101146 18.620467 35.850314 64.473875 113.830811
2026-02-15 1.600824 4.015171 8.836907 18.450511 36.130412 65.892708 117.804695
2026-02-22 1.505401 3.884109 8.735463 18.574574 36.929450 68.195062 123.288128
2026-03-01 1.457513 3.854251 8.832151 19.077591 38.426333 71.719675 130.898535